The return of humanity to the Moon is not simply a repeat of the Apollo program’s success, but an extremely complex technological equation where the price of failure is the lives of the crew. As the SLS rocket prepares for the Artemis II mission launch in April 2026, a new report from NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) has revealed alarming “gaps” in the safety system. It turns out that during future missions, in the event of an emergency on the surface of the Moon, there will be no one to rescue the astronauts, and their journey home may depend on the serviceability of a regular elevator on the outside of the spacecraft.

Comparison of the dimensions of Blue Origin and SpaceX HLS Starship landing modules

One of the most sobering conclusions of the OIG report was the acknowledgment that, half a century after the last flight to the moon, NASA had returned to the same level of risk as in the 1960s. If the Artemis mission astronauts encounter a critical malfunction on the lunar surface or in orbit, NASA currently has neither a plan nor the technical capability to conduct a rescue operation.

According to calculations, the probability of crew loss during the first Artemis missions is 1 in 30 for the entire flight and 1 in 40 during the actual landing on the Moon’s surface. By comparison, the risk during the Apollo program was estimated at 1 in 10, and Space Shuttle crews flew with an actual risk of 1 in 70. Although modern figures look better than they did in Neil Armstrong’s day, they are still dangerously high for the modern era of space flight.

Risks of Starship landing

The main protagonist of the first landings should be SpaceX’s HLS landing module, a modified version of the Starship spacecraft. Its dimensions are impressive: it is 52 meters high, which is equivalent to a 14-story building. However, it is precisely this scale that creates unprecedented engineering challenges.

Variants of SpaceX’s Starship lunar landing module

The South Pole of the Moon, where Artemis is headed, is an area with extremely complex terrain. Steep slopes with gradients of up to 20° make landing such a tall and heavy structure extremely dangerous. There is a real risk that Starship’s large moment of inertia could cause it to simply tip over after touching the surface. At the same time, NASA’s official requirements stipulate a “permissible tilt” of only 8°. By comparison, the Apollo lunar modules were seven times smaller, which made them much more stable on uneven surfaces.

Stuck on the Moon

Perhaps the most curious, but at the same time the most dangerous point in the report is the issue of the elevator. Since the Starship crew cabin is located at the top of the rocket, astronauts have to descend to the surface of the Moon on an external elevator from a height of about 10 stories.

The Malapert crater, one of 13 locations where the HLS Starship could land, is an 8-kilometer mountain near the South Pole of the Moon.
Photo: NASA / ASU

NASA’s Inspector General is sounding the alarm: at present, this elevator is the only means of returning astronauts back to the spacecraft. If the mechanism jams while the crew is on the surface, they will have no alternative route, such as a ladder, to return to the pressurized compartment.

SpaceX is working on duplicating the elevator systems, but NASA officially classifies this node as the main risk to human life. SpaceX’s competitor, Blue Origin, has a significantly lower Blue Moon module — 16 m — and astronauts will only need to descend a ladder.

20 flights for one landing

Another technological “gap” is refueling in orbit. For Starship to reach the Moon with a crew, it needs 10 to 20 refueling tankers, which have to launch from Earth every week. Such a large-scale logistical operation in space has never been carried out before.

The situation is complicated by physics: cryogenic fuel (liquid methane and oxygen) constantly heats up and evaporates. Scientists do not yet have a proven solution for stopping these losses during long waits for refueling in orbit. If the pace of tanker launches slows down, the mission could run out of fuel before it even begins its flight to the Moon.

A schedule on the edge

Despite criticism, NASA continues to prepare for the Artemis II mission, scheduled for launch on April 1, 2026. The SLS rocket and Orion capsule have already undergone repairs after hydrogen leaks and pressure problems. Next week, on March 19-20, the giant rocket is scheduled to return to the launch pad for final testing.

At the same time, NASA announced a radical change in strategy. The Artemis III mission will not include a landing on the Moon. In 2027, astronauts will only test docking and life support systems in Earth orbit. The landing itself has been postponed until 2028. This decision gives the agency and private contractors (SpaceX and Blue Origin) a little more time to patch up the security holes that have been discovered.

We previously reported on how space affects human health.