The second stage of China’s Zhuque-3 rocket left orbit and fell to Earth, doing so… twice. Before this, many European countries feared that it might fall on their territory.

What is “Zhuque-3”?

The Zhongyue-3 rocket was developed by the Chinese company LandSpace. It is a partially reusable rocket that uses methane as fuel and liquid oxygen as an oxidizer. In a fully disposable configuration, the rocket is capable of delivering up to 12 tons of cargo into low orbit, and up to 8 tons in a version with a returnable first stage.

Launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket.
Source: Landspace

Zhuque-3 was launched on December 3, 2025. This was its maiden flight. After separation, the first stage successfully performed a braking maneuver and entered the atmosphere. However, during the final stage of descent, it caught fire and ultimately crashed just a few meters from the landing site.

As for the second stage of the Zhuque-3, it successfully reached orbit and remained in space thereafter. As a rule, launch operators attempt to remove spent stages from orbit to prevent them from becoming space debris and posing a threat to spacecraft. However, for some reason, LandSpace did not do this. So the uncontrolled stage remained in space.

Panic in Europe

Over the next two months, the altitude of the second stage of Zhuque-3 gradually decreased due to deceleration in the upper layers of the Earth’s atmosphere. This process was significantly accelerated by increased solar activity, accompanied by a series of powerful flares that caused bright polar auroras.

Radar image of the second stage of the Zhuque-3 rocket. It was obtained by the TIRA radar one day before it fell to Earth.
Source: Fraunhofer FHR

By the end of January, the altitude of Zhuque-3 had decreased so much that it became clear that it would soon enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Since the stage weighed 7.5 tons (not counting the payload simulator, which weighed several more tons), this naturally raised concerns that its unburned debris could fall in a populated area and cause damage.

The situation caused the greatest concern in Europe. On January 30, the British government asked mobile operators to ensure the operability of the warning system in preparation for a possible rocket crash. Concerns about the consequences of the Zhuque-3 crash were also expressed in the media of other countries, such as Poland and Belgium.

However, in reality, until the very last hours, there was no way to predict where exactly the Chinese rocket would fall. The process of space debris falling is influenced by many factors, ranging from its orbit to the shape and strength of its components. The only thing that could be said with certainty was that it would happen somewhere between 57° north latitude and 57° south latitude.

A rocket that crashed twice

In the end, everything ended well. On January 30, at 12:39 p.m. UTC, the debris from Zhuque-3 fell into the southern Pacific Ocean. At least, that was the initial report. Both simulation results and data from the US military, whose satellite recorded a fireball in the region at an altitude of 80-90 km, indicated that the Chinese rocket fell at this point. This corresponds to the final stage of entry into the atmosphere.

However, nine hours later, the US Space Force released final data indicating that Zhuque-3 had fallen to Earth… twice. The first time, as reported, it happened at 12:39 p.m. UTC in the southern Pacific Ocean. However, one hour and four minutes later, a second fireball was recorded along the trajectory of Zhuque-3, this time over the Indian Ocean.

Map showing the two locations where the Chinese Zhuque-3 rocket fell.
Source: SatTrackCam Leiden

According to satellite spotter Marco Langbroek, there are two possible explanations for the situation. The first is a simple mistake or confusion. However, in his opinion, another, very rare scenario took place. The apogee of Zhuque-3’s last orbit was 211 km, while its perigee was 102 km. According to Langbroek, when the stage passed perigee, it began to disintegrate and broke into several pieces. The less durable components disintegrated over the Pacific Ocean, while the more durable and massive piece survived. After that, it managed to make another half-turn, after which it finally entered the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean. This fragment was probably a payload simulator, which was more durable than the stage.

The case of Zhuque-3 demonstrates once again that even with modern technology, it is extremely difficult to predict the location of space debris. That is why all participants in the space market must remove spent rocket stages from orbit to prevent such situations from recurring.

You can find out more about the most famous cases of space debris falling from our article.